2 vs 3: NBA Shot Optimization

A mathematical optimization project inspired by the "Moreyball" analytics revolution, which frames shot selection as a multi-objective problem: maximizing expected value while accounting for variance. By treating the court as an asset portfolio, the model calculates the exact break-even frontier where a team cannot increase expected point return without increasing the risk of missing the shot — directly applying Pareto optimization to sports analytics. Trained on 218,701 logged shots from the 2023–24 NBA season.